Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Established market position and track record with regionally diversified presence
After exiting CDR in 2017, Spandana has grown to become the second-largest NBFC-MFI (non-banking financial company/microfinance institution) in the country based on microfinance loan portfolio and the third-largest in terms of consolidated AUM (including non-microfinance loan portfolio) as on March 31, 2021 – registering a 3-year CAGR of 27%. Over the first nine months of 2022, the company’s consolidated AUM declined by 18% (non-annualized) to Rs 6,695 crore, owing to sporadic lockdowns amidst the second pandemic wave restricting field movement followed by operational challenges in the third quarter due to the erstwhile MD’s sudden exit from the company. Nonetheless, the company has a long track record of operating across business cycles and navigating through landmark challenges such as the Andhra Pradesh crisis in 2010, demonetisation and the ongoing pandemic. Market position also benefits from the geographical diversity in loan portfolio.
On December 31, 2021, the highest microfinance exposure to any single state was 18% against the company’s internal limit of 20% per state; exposure to top three states (Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Karnataka) was 49% of the microfinance portfolio. Even at district level, diversity in loan portfolio is high with the top 10 districts accounting for ~12% of the AUM. This is backed by the policy of the company to house not more than 2% of its AUM in any single district.
In the near term, growth prospects shall remain susceptible to the pace of recovery in ground level situation and, the company’s own operational changes. And, with restoration in normalcy, Spandana’s medium to long term business growth is expected to revive. With RBI’s revised regulatory framework for microfinance entities allowing NBFC-MFIs to hold 25% of their total assets as non-microfinance loans, Spandana’s ability to expand into adjacencies also improves giving way to segmental diversity.
- Sound risk management policies; collections and credit costs remain near term monitorables
After undergoing major challenges post-2010, the company has strengthened its operational mechanism and risk management practices. Its risk management policy stipulates requirements around geographical concentration, collections, delinquencies, operational metrics such as per unit (branch, loan officer) AUM concentration, leverage and other key parameters, which are strictly adhered to. Ever since Spandana exited CDR in 2017, its asset quality remained sound evidenced by 30+ dpds of sub 3% until March 2020. Thereafter, as ground level challenges arose after the pandemic and lockdown, 30+ dpds exhibited a sharp rise to 10.4% as of October 30, 2020 from 0.6% as on March 31, 2020.
Driven by revival in operational activities during the second half of fiscal 2021 and accelerated write offs of non-paying accounts, 30+ dpd of Spandana reduced marginally to 7.0% as of March 31, 2021 however, following the second wave, it has surged to 22% again as of July 2021 and has remain at the same level as of December 31, 2021. On March 31, 2021, audited (including cross defaults) GNPA and NNPA were 5.6% and 3.2%, respectively whereas on December 31, 2021, reported GNPA was 5.5% and NNPA was 2.8%.
With the gradual removal of lockdown restrictions across the country and restoring stability in operational activity after November 2021, collection efficiencies are estimated to recover further in the near to medium term. For fiscal 2021, credit costs were 7.0% of which 3.9% were write-offs. In the aftermath of the second wave now, credit costs for fiscal 2022 shall also remain elevated and will be a monitorable. From a long term perspective, the company will have the option of risk based pricing aided by the revised regulatory framework for microfinance lenders which, should provide better coverage.
- Healthy capitalisation metrics
Bolstered by successive rounds of capital infusion over the last five fiscals, capital position is robust in relation to scale and nature of business. On March 31 and December 31, 2021, reported networth was Rs 2,749 crore and Rs 2,733 crore, respectively. The decline in networth over the quarter was accredited to changes in fair value account balance and losses made in Q2 2022. On the same dates, adjusted gearing was low at 2.5 times and 1.8 times. Capital adequacy, as on both these dates, was comfortable at 39.2% and 46.8%, respectively and, is expected to increase after the additional capital infusion in March 2022
Between 2011 to 2021, the company has raised about Rs 665 crore as fresh equity (including its initial public offer [IPO]) and Rs 791 crore (excluding premium/discount) through debt conversion during CDR. Incrementally, Rs 354 crore (excluding premium/discount) was raised as fresh Cumulative Convertible Preference Shares (CCPS) which were eventually converted into equity. Apart from that, the company has generated Rs 1,462 crore of cumulative profits over fiscal 2014-2021, which offset the accumulated losses of Rs 1,185 crore as on March 31, 2013. Recently, in March 2022, the company has further raised Rs 290 crore as a combination of equity and share warrants and another Rs 10 crore pertaining to share warrants issue in the month, is expected to be received in Q1 2023.
On a steady state basis, capital position shall remain healthy, backed by the company’s philosophy of maintaining gearing at sub-5 times and capital adequacy at above 25%. Support of established investors like Kedaara Capital also adds to this strength.
- Above-average operating profitability, though momentary pressure expected due to the pandemic
Earnings profile has remained above average as reflected in 5-year average RoMA of 4.5%. With the stipulated interest margin cap of 10%, which has been applicable to MFIs thus far, Spandana’s ability to maximise its operating efficiency and curtail operating expenses has been a key driver for its profitability. Operating expense ratio has remained below 4% over the last four fiscals, as compared to industry average of 5-6%. Net gain on de-recognition of assets (which were sold down through direct assignment route) has also boosted profitability.
However, due to the increased credit costs after the pandemic, RoMA for fiscal 2021 declined to 1.6% from 5.0% for fiscal 2020. During fiscal 2021, the company made provisions of Rs 283 crore and wrote off an additional Rs 362 crore, as a result of which credit costs for the year stood at an elevated 7% as compared to <1% for the preceding 4-5 years. For nine months ended December 31, 2021, the company reported a muted RoMA of 0.6% (annualized) whereas its credit costs were 7.0% (annualized).
Over the medium term, profitability will remain a monitorable due to susceptibility to external shocks linked to the pandemic.
Weaknesses:
The share of assignments and securitization in the company’s funding profile has remained high. 49.0% of the total borrowings outstanding as on March 31, 2020 comprised direct assignments and securitization. While this share has declined to 27.3% as of March 31, 2021, it is still significant. Of the Rs 5,404 crore raised in fiscal 2021 as resources, the contribution of securitisation and assignment was 20%. The 33 lenders of the company are mostly private banks and NBFCs. For fiscal 2021, 48% of the funding raised was sourced from private banks and NBFCs whereas that sourced from public banks was 15%.
Historically, the company’s reliance on private banks and NBFCs as funding avenues has been on the higher side, leading to an elevated borrowing cost thus far. In the first nine months of 2022, the company has raised Rs 1374 crore. The company’s ability to increase the share of public banks in its funding base over the medium term remains a monitorable.
- Susceptibility to local socio-political issues in the microfinance sector and inherent weakness in the borrower credit risk profile
The microfinance sector has witnessed two major disruptive events in the past decade. The first was the crisis promulgated by the ordinance passed by the Government of Andhra Pradesh in 2010 and the second was demonetization in 2016. In addition, the sector has faced issues of varying intensity in several geographies. Promulgation of the ordinance on MFIs by the Government of Andhra Pradesh in 2010 demonstrated their vulnerability to regulatory and legislative risks. The ordinance triggered a chain of events that adversely affected the business models of MFIs by impairing their growth, asset quality, profitability, and solvency. Similarly, the sector witnessed high level of delinquencies post-demonetization and the subsequent socio-political events.
For Spandana, the impact of demonetisation was relatively less as compared to peers. Since March 2020, collections have remained weak in most of the states due to on and off lockdowns and vulnerable cash flows of the borrowers. This indicates the fragility of the business model against external risks. As business involves lending to the poor and downtrodden sections of the society, MFIs will remain exposed to socially sensitive factors, including charging of high interest rates and consequently, tighter regulations and legislation.
- Low stability in senior management
Over the last three years, churn in the senior management team has remained high – especially for important positions such as Chief Financial Officer and Chief Risk Officer. In the month of September 2021, the officiating Chief Financial Officer and the Chief Strategy Officer, tendered their resignations with notice periods of 1 day and 1 month 15 days, respectively. This was followed by the exit of the founder-promoter, Ms Padmaja Reddy who was spearheading this organization since inception, on November 2, 2021.
Prior to the new MD and CFO joining the company, - seasoned directors from the board provided strategic guidance to the company – by being part of a management committee. This low stability in the senior management can potentially impact on the company’s ability to maintain smooth operational workflow and thus, will be monitored closely.